CHAPTER I
OPENING
COMPANY PROFILE
Name
of Company :
PT Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk
Specialities : Beer Brewing
Website :http://www.multibintang.co.id
Industry : Consumer Goods
Type
of Company :
Public Company
Headquarters
: Jl. Let
Jend TB Simatupangkav. 22 – 26 Jakarta Selatan, DKI Jakarta 12430 Indonesia
Company Size : 201-500 employees
Founded : 1929
Vision :
To be a reputable and responsible Indonesian Beverage Company with aportfolio
of leading brands.
Values :
A Passion for Quality in Everything We Do; Creating Brands that People Love;
The Enjoyment of Life; Respect for People and Planet
HISTORY :
·
(1929) Establishment of NV
NederlandschIndischeBierbrouwerijen in Medan.
·
(1931) Commissioned Greenfield
Brewery in Surabaya and commenced the first production of “Java Beer”.
·
(1936) Heineken Group became the
main shareholder of the company that was renamed Heineken
IndischeBierbrouwerijenMaatschapij.
·
(1949) After the World War II:
the brewery resumed operation and introduced Heineken beer in the market.
·
(1965) The company was taken over
by the Government during the nationalization campaign in Indonesia.
·
(1967) Heineken regained
ownership and the brand ‘BintangBaru’ was born.
·
(1972) The company was renamed PT
Perusahaan Bir Indonesia.
·
(1973) Greenfield brewery in
Tangerang commenced operation.
·
(1981) The Company went public,
listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange and Surabaya Stock Exchange as PT Multi
Bintang Indonesia Tbk.
·
(1992) Closure of brewery in
Medan.
·
(1997) Relocated brewing
operations in Surabaya to SampangAgung where a new brewery was built.
·
(2005) Established PT Multi
Bintang Indonesia Niaga in charge of sales and marketing. 2010: Asia Pacific
Breweries Limited from Singapore became the majority shareholder of PT Multi
Bintang Indonesia Tbk.
·
(2013) HEINEKEN International B.V
returned as the majority shareholders of PT Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk.
Tangerang Brewery also completed its technical upgrade.
·
(2014) Establishment of the third
production facillity for alcohol free products in SampangAgung, Mojokerto.
Awards :
·
In 2011, Bintang Beer won the Gold
Medal for Lager Beer Category and awarded as ‘Champion Beer 2011’ at the
world’s class beer competition, the Brewing Industry International Award (BIIA
2011) in London.
·
In 2012, PT Multi Bintang
Indonesia Tbk was awarded one of the top 50 Best Performing Indonesian
Companies by Forbes Indonesia In 2013, the company was selected by
HayGroup as one of Indonesian Employers of Choice 2013.
·
Our iconic brand BirBintang was
awarded as Top 50 Most Valuable Indonesian Brand 2013 & 2014 by Brand
Finance
·
PT Multi Bintang Indonesia was
awarded as AnugerahSeabad Indonesia
2045, from Indonesia Business Data Center (PDBI), an award for company who have
become a national asset, motivator, and inspiration to create a better quality
of Indonesia in 2045.
·
In 2014, PT. Multi Bintang
Indonesia was awarded as Living Legend Company 2014 and followed by Bintang
Beer also was awarded as Everlasting Brand Award 2014.
·
In August 2014, PT Multi Bintang
Indonesia was awarded as PR Program of The Year 2014.
Description :
First established a
Nederlandsh-IndischeBierbrouwerijen in Medan in 1929, the Company was operating
a brewery in Surabaya before it built a second brewery in Tangerang in 1972.
Over time, the Company grew in strength to
become a reputable and responsible Indonesian Beverage Company with portfolio
of leading beer and soft drinks brands. In line with its growth and
development, the Company was renamed PT Multi BintangIndonesia Tbk. when it
went public in 1981. Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX), Multi
Bintang became a subsidiary of Asia Pacific Breweries Limited (APB) from
Singapore when APB acquired a majority stake in Multi Bintang in 2010.
In September 2013, HEINEKEN International
B.V. from the Netherlands returned as the majority shareholder of the Company
when it acquired the shares held by APB.
Multi Bintang is synonymous with Bintang
beer, the iconic and most favorite beer brand of Indonesia. Offering a
portfolio of beer and soft drinks brands, Multi Bintang also produces and
markets the world’s most valuable international premium beer brand, Heineken;
alcohol-free beer, Bintang Zero and carbonated soft drink, Green Sands in
Indonesia.
While the breweries of Multi Bintang are
situated in SampangAgung and Tangerang, Multi Bintang through its subsidiary,
PT Multi Bintang Indonesia Niaga has established an extensive sales and
marketing footprint across all major Indonesian cities, spanning from Medan in
North Sumatra to Jayapura in Papua.
CHAPTER II
ANALYSIS
A. Formula to Calculate Daily Stock
Return and Daily Market Returns :
Data for Stock Returns
Stock
Returns (Multi Bintang)
Highest
2015
·
03/24/2015: 0.032418953
2014
·
12/26/2014: 94.798917
2013
·
24/12/2013: 98.99976409
2012
·
12/30/2012: 53.45729206
2011
·
12/27/2011: 0.0888
2010
·
27/12/2010: 0.200704225
Average Stock Return
|
||||||
Year
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
Average
|
0.0029895
|
0.00120165
|
0.22213958
|
0.32354067
|
0.38498465
|
-0.003495655
|
Based on the
data we can interpret that the highest average stock return of PT Multi
Bintang, Tbk is on 2014 which is 0.38498465 and the lowest average stock return
is on 2011 which is 0.00120165
B. Daily Stock Return and Daily Market
Returns in One Graphic :
C. Market Modelon CAPM &Regression Analysis
Market Model on CAPM
Ri
|
Rm
|
|
average
|
0.197129294
|
0.000649326
|
Std dev
|
4.118816621
|
0.011722822
|
Variance
|
16.96465036
|
0.000137425
|
Variance and covariance
|
|||
variance
|
Covariance(ri, Rm)
|
||
Ri
|
16.95134475
|
||
Rm
|
0.000137317
|
-0.000394196
|
|
Calculating
Beta:
The risk free rate (Rf)
on 2015 is 7.50% according to annual BI Rate. Using
the average market return (0.000649326) and
(-2.870700642), we can calculateExpected Security Return with the
following formula:
Where:
So,
=
0.2884
Therefore
the expected security return for Multi Bintang’ssecurity is 28.84%
Regression Analysis
SUMMARY OUTPUT
|
|
Regression Statistics
|
|
Multiple R
|
0.0081705
|
R Square
|
6.67571E-05
|
Adjusted R Square
|
-0.000718736
|
Standard Error
|
4.120296527
|
Observations
|
1275
|
ANOVA
|
|||||
df
|
SS
|
MS
|
F
|
Significance F
|
|
Regression
|
1
|
1.442818297
|
1.442818297
|
0.08498743
|
0.770696529
|
Residual
|
1273
|
21611.52174
|
16.97684347
|
||
Total
|
1274
|
21612.96456
|
Coefficients
|
Standard Error
|
t Stat
|
P-value
|
|
Intercept
|
0.198993317
|
0.115568399
|
1.721866176
|
0.085336686
|
Rm
|
-2.870707339
|
9.847173075
|
-0.291526037
|
0.770696529
|
Hypothesis
Testing of Regression:
H0:
Daily stock return is not affected by daily market return
H1:
Daily stock return is affected by daily market return
Criteria:
P-value >
alpha àHo is
supported
P-value <
alpha àHo is not
supported
P-value = 0.770696529, α = 0.05
0.770696529>0.05 à Daily stock
return is not supported by daily market return
The Hypothesis testing concludes that daily stock
return is independent from the market. Market movement has little or no effect
at all on stock price movement.
D. BETA
There
are several types of beta:
1. A
beta of 1.0 means that the security's price has been equally as volatile as the
market.
2.
A beta of 0 means that
the stock is independent of the market and its movements are not correlated.
3. A
beta higher than 1.0 means that the security's price has been more volatile
than the market.
4. A
beta lower than 1.0 means that its price has been less volatile than the
market.
5. A
negative beta means that the stock moves inversely with the market. When one
rises, the other falls and vice versa.
By
using CAPM model we get beta of -2.870700642,
and by using regression
we got -2.870707339.Both models
have similar result; therefore it can be assumed that the calculation is
correct. The results indicate that Multi Bintang Tbk’s stock moves inversly
with the market. When one rises, the other falls, and vice versa. The hypothesis testing shows that
Multi Bintang’s stock price movement is independent from the market.
E.
DIVIDEND
The
formula to find expected security return is:
E(r)=intercept+beta*Rm
Where:
|
|
 |
Based
on this tabel,
we can interpret that all data is significant at 5% level, so the market is
efficient. The information is responded positive and also negative by the
market, and also significant at 5% level.
* means the
value of abnormal return is significant at 10%
** means the value of abnormal return is significant at
5%
Almost all of the abnormal return is significant,
which means that the realized return (Ri) is not the same as the expected (Re),
(sometimes it is positive and sometimes negative -). The market responds negatively
before the dividend payment and after the dividend payment. That is why the
market is efficient since it is quick to reply to the information on the price.
t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means
|
||
before
|
after
|
|
Mean
|
-0.006137151
|
9.378884725
|
Variance
|
0.000376646
|
900.909756
|
Observations
|
10
|
10
|
Pearson Correlation
|
0.109791329
|
|
Hypothesized Mean Difference
|
0
|
|
df
|
9
|
|
t Stat
|
-0.988838543
|
|
P(T<=t) one-tail
|
0.174289914
|
|
t Critical one-tail
|
1.833112923
|
|
P(T<=t) two-tail
|
0.348579827
|
|
t Critical two-tail
|
2.262157158
|
|
Determine
Hypothesis
H0:
μ1 - μ2 = 0
H1: μ1 - μ2 ≠ 0
Criteria
T stat <
t critical à H0 is
accepted
T stat >
t critical à H0 is
rejected
Analysis
0.988838543<
2.262157158
T stat < t critical therefore H0 is accepted. There
is no significant difference in average return in 10 days before and 10 days
after dividend payment timeline. We may conclude that dividend payment do not
affect stock price significantly. Investors’ activities are not based on the
decision of dividend payment.
CHAPTER III
CONCLUSION
Based on our analysis we can
conclude:
a.
Based on regression analysis
The results based on regression analysis is less then 1, it means that the
risk and return is low. The results indicate that Multi Bintang Tbk’s stock moves
inversly with the market. When one rises, the other fallas and vice versa.
Thus, Multi Bintang Tbk’s stock price movement is independent from the market.
b.
Based on Daily Data
In years
2011 until 2015 there is no significant difference in average return in 10 days
before and 10 days after divident payment timeline. So,we may conclude that
divident payment do not affect stock price significantly
c.
Based
on hypotesis testing of regression
The result
based on hypotesis testing of regression is 0.770696529. It means
the amount of p-value is more than 0.05. Thus, Ho is accepted. It means that
daily stock return is not affected by daily market return.
